Evaluating and Improving Models

Give every shift its own error report

Only one night reading remains

The night team sees errors that disappear inside the overall average. Reuse the residual calculation and keep shift membership attached.

BOTIE

Day MAE is 1 and the single night error is 4. What should Botie conclude?
The inputs we are comparing

Observed temperatures

Same in both cases

  1. 010
  2. 110
  3. 210
  4. 310

Predicted temperatures

Balanced shifts

  1. 09
  2. 19
  3. 29
  4. 39

A hidden night regression

  1. 09
  2. 19
  3. 29
  4. 36

Shift for each reading

Balanced shifts

  1. 0day
  2. 1night
  3. 2day
  4. 3night

A hidden night regression

  1. 0day
  2. 1day
  3. 2day
  4. 3night
Result for balanced shifts
[
  {
    "group": "day",
    "n": 2,
    "mae": 1
  },
  {
    "group": "night",
    "n": 2,
    "mae": 1
  }
]
Choose an explanation to test
The night shift is now the majority

This check uses the pieces from “Preserve the night denominator”.

BOTIE

Night errors are 1 and 3, while the only day error is zero. Predict each count and MAE in first-seen order.
Observed temperatures
  1. 04
  2. 18
  3. 26
Predicted temperatures
  1. 03
  2. 15
  3. 26
Shift for each reading
  1. 0night
  2. 1night
  3. 2day

Use a number, text, or an array matching the requested result. For a matrix, put each row in brackets. Saving your prediction runs your current construction on these inputs and checks the earlier examples too.

Build a construction in the workspace above first. This case will test those pieces.

Which new night observations would help distinguish a persistent problem from one unusual reading?

A slice needs both a clear definition and enough relevant evidence.

Counts and means alone do not quantify uncertainty, establish fairness or explain the cause of a group difference.

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